Colombian Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.53%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
12.79%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
13.54%
increased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5169 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1100 | 10.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8466 | 58.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0625 | 1.28 |
| γ2 | -0.0579 | -0.86 |
| γ3 | -0.1140 | -3.10*** |
| γ4 | 0.2629 | 9.30*** |
| γ5 | -0.3200 | -10.73*** |
| γ6 | 0.3037 | 8.39*** |
| γ7 | -0.1854 | -4.91*** |
| γ8 | 0.0546 | 1.67* |
| γ9 | -0.0233 | -0.81 |
| γ10 | 0.0286 | 0.69 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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