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V-Lab

Colombian Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

18.61%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

18.51%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Month

18.20%

decreased by 1.22%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Colombian Peso SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 20, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5096
3.40***
αARCH0.1110
10.00***
βGARCH0.8430
56.27***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0639
1.35
γ2-0.0627
-0.96
γ3-0.1056
-2.95***
γ40.2535
9.29***
γ5-0.3142
-11.40***
γ60.3079
9.11***
γ7-0.2009
-5.56***
γ80.0730
2.26**
γ9-0.0395
-1.38
γ100.0572
1.40

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5096
3.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1110
10.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8430
56.27***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0639
1.35
γ2-0.0627
-0.96
γ3-0.1056
-2.95***
γ40.2535
9.29***
γ5-0.3142
-11.40***
γ60.3079
9.11***
γ7-0.2009
-5.56***
γ80.0730
2.26**
γ9-0.0395
-1.38
γ100.0572
1.40

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days