V-Lab
Japanese Yen Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
7.98%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
7.95%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
7.81%
decreased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2634 | 6.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0412 | 7.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9356 | 110.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0116 | 0.57 |
| γ2 | -0.0298 | -0.93 |
| γ3 | 0.0229 | 1.01 |
| γ4 | 0.0214 | 1.01 |
| γ5 | -0.0709 | -3.24*** |
| γ6 | 0.0847 | 4.10*** |
| γ7 | -0.0731 | -3.29*** |
| γ8 | 0.0792 | 3.36*** |
| γ9 | -0.1012 | -2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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