Czech Koruna Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
4.92%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.95%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
5.04%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Oct 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 141 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~141 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0954 | 7.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0347 | 6.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9604 | 147.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -0.89 |
0.995
Persistence141d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0954 | 7.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0347 | 6.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9604 | 147.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -0.89 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
141 days
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