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V-Lab

Czech Koruna Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

4.92%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

4.95%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

5.04%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 03:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/31/2024

to

10/31/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Czech Koruna SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 1993 to Oct 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 141 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~141 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0954
7.98***
αARCH0.0347
6.00***
βGARCH0.9604
147.28***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0005
-0.89

0.995

Persistence

141d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0954
7.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0347
6.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9604
147.28***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0005
-0.89

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

141 days