South African Rand Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.48%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
8.56%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
8.82%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6087 | 6.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0746 | 6.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9052 | 67.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0133 | 3.20*** |
| γ2 | -0.0259 | -4.26*** |
| γ3 | 0.0213 | 5.60*** |
| γ4 | -0.0214 | -4.36*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6087 | 6.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0746 | 6.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9052 | 67.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0133 | 3.20*** |
| γ2 | -0.0259 | -4.26*** |
| γ3 | 0.0213 | 5.60*** |
| γ4 | -0.0214 | -4.36*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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