South African Rand Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.83%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
10.83%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
10.81%
decreased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6111 | 6.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0761 | 6.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9033 | 66.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0138 | 3.30*** |
| γ2 | -0.0267 | -4.36*** |
| γ3 | 0.0218 | 5.66*** |
| γ4 | -0.0211 | -4.25*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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