V-Lab
Norwegian Krone Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
6.99%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
7.03%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
7.20%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~113 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9992 | 9.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.0293 | 6.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9646 | 186.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.36 |
0.994
Persistence113d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9992 | 9.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0293 | 6.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9646 | 186.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
Other Norwegian Krone Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies