V-Lab
Norwegian Krone GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
6.37%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
6.42%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
6.60%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~116 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0022 | 3.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.0313 | 3.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9650 | 199.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.0046 | -0.36 |
0.994
Persistence116d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0022 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0313 | 3.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9650 | 199.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0046 | -0.36 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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