V-Lab
Norwegian Krone Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
6.33%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
6.38%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
6.56%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~116 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9754 | 10.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0294 | 6.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9647 | 189.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.15 |
0.994
Persistence116d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9754 | 10.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0294 | 6.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9647 | 189.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.15 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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