V-Lab
Norwegian Krone Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
8.12%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
8.14%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
8.22%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9670 | 10.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0292 | 6.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9650 | 189.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.27 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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