V-Lab
Japanese Yen Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
9.49%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
9.46%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
9.37%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1868 | 6.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0414 | 7.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9367 | 115.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 0.08 |
| γ2 | -0.0154 | -0.46 |
| γ3 | 0.0174 | 0.73 |
| γ4 | 0.0196 | 0.88 |
| γ5 | -0.0628 | -2.71*** |
| γ6 | 0.0723 | 3.37*** |
| γ7 | -0.0571 | -2.56** |
| γ8 | 0.0539 | 2.54** |
| γ9 | -0.0463 | -3.15*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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