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V-Lab

Japanese Yen Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

5.01%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

5.07%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

5.27%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japanese Yen S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 56 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3911
12.57***
αARCH0.0400
8.35***
βGARCH0.9476
157.80***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
4.83***

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3911
12.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0400
8.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9476
157.80***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
4.83***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days