Japanese Yen AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
6.11%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
6.16%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
6.34%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~85 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0019 | 3.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.0393 | 9.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9525 | 194.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.1200 | 2.31** |
0.992
Persistence85d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0019 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0393 | 9.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9525 | 194.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1200 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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