Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Japanese Yen AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

6.11%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

6.16%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

6.34%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japanese Yen AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~85 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0019
3.33***
αARCH0.0393
9.24***
βGARCH0.9525
194.19***
γleverage0.1200
2.31**

0.992

Persistence

85d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0019
3.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0393
9.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9525
194.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1200
2.31**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

85 days