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V-Lab
V-Lab

Japanese Yen AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

8.14%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

8.15%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

8.18%

decreased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japanese Yen AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0019
3.32***
αARCH0.0391
9.21***
βGARCH0.9529
195.14***
γleverage0.1195
2.30**

0.992

Persistence

86d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0019
3.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0391
9.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9529
195.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1195
2.30**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

86 days