V-Lab
Japanese Yen AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
8.14%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
8.15%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
8.18%
decreased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0019 | 3.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.0391 | 9.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9529 | 195.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.1195 | 2.30** |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0019 | 3.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0391 | 9.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9529 | 195.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1195 | 2.30** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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