Czech Koruna AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
5.75%
increased by 0.51%
1 Week
5.79%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
5.93%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 03:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Oct 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 175 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~175 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0014 | 2.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0353 | 6.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9607 | 152.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.0154 | 0.34 |
0.996
Persistence175d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0014 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0353 | 6.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9607 | 152.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0154 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
175 days
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