V-Lab
Czech Koruna AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
5.38%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
5.43%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
5.60%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 169 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0014 | 11.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0354 | 24.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9605 | 604.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0143 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
169 days
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