Czech Koruna MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.49%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
5.82%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
5.88%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0647 | 2.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0784 | 0.49 |
| γleverage | 0.0302 | 0.86 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0390 | 4.68*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9061 | 10.69*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.158
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0647 | 2.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0784 | 0.49 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0302 | 0.86 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0390 | 4.68*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9061 | 10.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.158
Half-life:
0 days
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