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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

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Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	21
αARCH	0.1419	7.82***
βGARCH	0.7340	19.20***
γleverage	-0.1170	-6.04***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0105	1.04
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0880	3.82***
λ₃tau persistence	0.8965	27.91***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	21
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1419	7.82***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7340	19.20***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.1170	-6.04***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0105	1.04
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0880	3.82***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.8965	27.91***

V-Lab

US Dollar to Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other US Dollar to Brazilian Real Analyses