Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

US Dollar to Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

12.90%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

14.20%

increased by 0.86%

1 Month

17.97%

increased by 4.63%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Brazilian Real MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.1085
7.34***
βGARCH0.8013
36.32***
γleverage-0.0984
-6.30***
λ₁tau intercept0.1002
1.22
λ₂forecast adj.0.8434
6.51***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.861

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1085
7.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8013
36.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0984
-6.30***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1002
1.22
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8434
6.51***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.861

Half-life:

5 days