Ripple to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
49.66%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
56.06%
increased by 5.53%
1 Month
64.36%
increased by 13.83%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 06:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Oct 17, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 121 | |
| αARCH | 0.2357 | 3.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5842 | 7.91*** |
| γleverage | -0.0646 | -0.82 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 1.07 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5194 | 1.69* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0428 | 0.07 |
0.788
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2357 | 3.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5842 | 7.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0646 | -0.82 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5194 | 1.69* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0428 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.788
Half-life:
3 days
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