V-Lab
Ripple to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
43.02%
decreased by 5.30%
1 Week
43.96%
decreased by 4.36%
1 Month
45.25%
decreased by 3.07%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Sep 26, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6457 | 4.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.1992 | 4.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6143 | 9.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.3482 | 0.86 |
| γ2 | -0.3850 | -0.63 |
| γ3 | 0.5947 | 1.41 |
| γ4 | -1.6472 | -3.21*** |
| γ5 | 2.1265 | 2.70*** |
| γ6 | -1.9375 | -1.83* |
| γ7 | 1.8010 | 1.96* |
| γ8 | -1.6721 | -2.98*** |
| γ9 | 1.1127 | 3.07*** |
0.813
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6457 | 4.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1992 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6143 | 9.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.3482 | 0.86 |
| γ2 | -0.3850 | -0.63 |
| γ3 | 0.5947 | 1.41 |
| γ4 | -1.6472 | -3.21*** |
| γ5 | 2.1265 | 2.70*** |
| γ6 | -1.9375 | -1.83* |
| γ7 | 1.8010 | 1.96* |
| γ8 | -1.6721 | -2.98*** |
| γ9 | 1.1127 | 3.07*** |
Persistence:
0.813
Half-life:
3 days
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