V-Lab
Egyptian Pound Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
6.22%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
6.31%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
6.51%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2003 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2469 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1888 | 5.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7061 | 16.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0011 | -0.02 |
| γ2 | 0.0817 | 0.95 |
| γ3 | -0.1218 | -1.21 |
| γ4 | 0.0281 | 0.25 |
| γ5 | 0.1163 | 1.16 |
| γ6 | -0.2484 | -2.83*** |
| γ7 | 0.2786 | 2.90*** |
| γ8 | -0.2014 | -2.34** |
| γ9 | 0.0715 | 1.28 |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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