V-Lab
Egyptian Pound Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.75%
increased by 0.55%
1 Week
5.93%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
6.31%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2515 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1888 | 5.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7061 | 16.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0015 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.0829 | 0.96 |
| γ3 | -0.1238 | -1.23 |
| γ4 | 0.0312 | 0.28 |
| γ5 | 0.1125 | 1.12 |
| γ6 | -0.2453 | -2.80*** |
| γ7 | 0.2774 | 2.90*** |
| γ8 | -0.2025 | -2.36** |
| γ9 | 0.0733 | 1.31 |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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