V-Lab
Egyptian Pound Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5.93%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
6.08%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
6.38%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2369 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1882 | 5.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7054 | 16.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0023 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0834 | 0.96 |
| γ3 | -0.1210 | -1.20 |
| γ4 | 0.0239 | 0.21 |
| γ5 | 0.1228 | 1.24 |
| γ6 | -0.2540 | -2.89*** |
| γ7 | 0.2807 | 2.91*** |
| γ8 | -0.2007 | -2.33** |
| γ9 | 0.0704 | 1.27 |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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