V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
19.64%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
19.59%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
19.45%
decreased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0345 | 3.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0505 | 3.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8713 | 28.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3051 | 2.20** |
| γ2 | -0.4353 | -2.37** |
| γ3 | 0.2325 | 2.26** |
| γ4 | -0.0975 | -0.57 |
| γ5 | -0.0568 | -0.25 |
| γ6 | 0.0501 | 0.27 |
| γ7 | 0.1185 | 0.98 |
| γ8 | -0.2088 | -2.93*** |
0.922
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0345 | 3.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0505 | 3.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8713 | 28.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3051 | 2.20** |
| γ2 | -0.4353 | -2.37** |
| γ3 | 0.2325 | 2.26** |
| γ4 | -0.0975 | -0.57 |
| γ5 | -0.0568 | -0.25 |
| γ6 | 0.0501 | 0.27 |
| γ7 | 0.1185 | 0.98 |
| γ8 | -0.2088 | -2.93*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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