V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
17.89%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
17.95%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
18.11%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0465 | 3.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0514 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8714 | 29.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3078 | 2.18** |
| γ2 | -0.4376 | -2.33** |
| γ3 | 0.2290 | 2.04** |
| γ4 | -0.0891 | -0.47 |
| γ5 | -0.0649 | -0.27 |
| γ6 | 0.0521 | 0.27 |
| γ7 | 0.1165 | 0.95 |
| γ8 | -0.2022 | -2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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