V-Lab
Gold Troy Ounce EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
16.65%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
16.70%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
16.85%
decreased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0052 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0979 | 8.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9745 | 215.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0136 | 1.53 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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