V-Lab
British Pound EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
4.33%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.40%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
4.69%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | -0.0038 | -1.59 |
| αARCH | 0.0782 | 6.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9922 | 524.44*** |
| γleverage | -0.0136 | -1.42 |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0038 | -1.59 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0782 | 6.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 524.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0136 | -1.42 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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