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V-Lab

British Pound APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

5.06%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

5.09%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

5.23%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 01:55 PM UTC

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graph of British Pound APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 142 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~142 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0014
3.45***
αARCH0.0310
5.84***
βGARCH0.9652
191.66***
γleverage0.1099
1.44
δpower1.8667
8.54***

0.995

Persistence

142d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0014
3.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0310
5.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9652
191.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1099
1.44
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8667
8.54***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

142 days