V-Lab
British Pound APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
5.06%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
5.09%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
5.23%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 01:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 142 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~142 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0014 | 3.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0310 | 5.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9652 | 191.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.1099 | 1.44 |
| δpower | 1.8667 | 8.54*** |
0.995
Persistence142d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0014 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0310 | 5.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9652 | 191.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1099 | 1.44 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8667 | 8.54*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
142 days
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