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V-Lab

British Pound APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

6.10%

increased by 0.15%

1 Week

6.13%

increased by 0.18%

1 Month

6.21%

increased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of British Pound APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 51% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0014
13.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0307
23.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9653
763.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1091
5.66***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8734
34.14***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

139 days