British Pound APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
6.10%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
6.13%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
6.21%
increased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 139 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 51% more than positive returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0014 | 13.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0307 | 23.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9653 | 763.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1091 | 5.66*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8734 | 34.14*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
139 days
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