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V-Lab

Romanian Leu APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

6.33%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

6.35%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

6.43%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Romanian Leu APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2002 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 396 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~396 daysδ = 1.84 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0008
2.38**
αARCH0.0325
6.29***
βGARCH0.9675
231.12***
γleverage-0.0448
-0.73
δpower1.8357
8.25***

0.998

Persistence

396d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0008
2.38**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0325
6.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9675
231.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0448
-0.73
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8357
8.25***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

396 days