V-Lab
Romanian Leu APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.10%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.13%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
4.26%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 446 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~446 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0007 | 2.28** |
| αARCH | 0.0328 | 6.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9672 | 231.84*** |
| γleverage | -0.0310 | -0.54 |
| δpower | 1.8582 | 8.26*** |
0.998
Persistence446d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 2.28** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0328 | 6.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9672 | 231.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0310 | -0.54 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8582 | 8.26*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
446 days
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