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V-Lab

Romanian Leu APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.10%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

4.13%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

4.26%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Romanian Leu APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 446 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~446 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0007
2.28**
αARCH0.0328
6.31***
βGARCH0.9672
231.84***
γleverage-0.0310
-0.54
δpower1.8582
8.26***

0.998

Persistence

446d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0007
2.28**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0328
6.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9672
231.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0310
-0.54
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8582
8.26***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

446 days