Romanian Leu APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
6.33%
1 Week
6.35%
1 Month
6.43%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 396 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0008 | 2.38** |
| αARCH | 0.0325 | 6.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9675 | 231.12*** |
| γleverage | -0.0448 | -0.73 |
| δpower | 1.8357 | 8.25*** |
0.998
Persistence396d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0008 | 2.38** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0325 | 6.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9675 | 231.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0448 | -0.73 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8357 | 8.25*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
396 days
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