Romanian Leu Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
4.81%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.83%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.91%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9361 | 7.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0303 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9619 | 165.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0206 | -3.93*** |
| γ2 | 0.0320 | 3.88*** |
| γ3 | -0.0158 | -2.07** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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