V-Lab
Romanian Leu Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.51%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
4.53%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
4.60%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9379 | 7.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.0304 | 6.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9619 | 166.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0206 | -3.96*** |
| γ2 | 0.0323 | 3.94*** |
| γ3 | -0.0180 | -2.40** |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9379 | 7.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0304 | 6.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9619 | 166.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0206 | -3.96*** |
| γ2 | 0.0323 | 3.94*** |
| γ3 | -0.0180 | -2.40** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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