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V-Lab
V-Lab

Romanian Leu Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

4.51%

increased by 0.36%

1 Week

4.53%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

4.60%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Romanian Leu SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9379
7.12***
αARCH0.0304
6.79***
βGARCH0.9619
166.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0206
-3.96***
γ20.0323
3.94***
γ3-0.0180
-2.40**

0.992

Persistence

90d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9379
7.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0304
6.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9619
166.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0206
-3.96***
γ20.0323
3.94***
γ3-0.0180
-2.40**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days