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V-Lab
V-Lab

Egyptian Pound Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

8.43%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

9.38%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

11.16%

increased by 2.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Egyptian Pound SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 30, 2003 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3078
5.45***
αARCH0.1902
5.20***
βGARCH0.7078
16.91***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0096
0.13
γ20.0500
0.35
γ3-0.0344
-0.24
γ4-0.1298
-1.11
γ50.2590
1.86*
γ6-0.2375
-1.43
γ70.0459
0.38
γ80.1701
1.94*
γ9-0.2828
-2.84***
γ100.3595
2.72***

0.898

Persistence

6d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3078
5.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1902
5.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7078
16.91***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0096
0.13
γ20.0500
0.35
γ3-0.0344
-0.24
γ4-0.1298
-1.11
γ50.2590
1.86*
γ6-0.2375
-1.43
γ70.0459
0.38
γ80.1701
1.94*
γ9-0.2828
-2.84***
γ100.3595
2.72***

Persistence:

0.898

Half-life:

6 days