United States Dollar Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4.90%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.92%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.96%
decreased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8491 | 4.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0377 | 9.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9555 | 201.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -1.49 |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8491 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0377 | 9.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9555 | 201.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -1.49 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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