V-Lab
United States Dollar Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
5.27%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
5.30%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
5.40%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6750 | 1.97** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0364 | 7.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9578 | 165.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0060 | -1.30 |
| γ2 | 0.0099 | 1.37 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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