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V-Lab

United States Dollar Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

5.27%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

5.30%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

5.40%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of United States Dollar Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6750
1.97**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0364
7.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9578
165.91***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0060
-1.30
γ20.0099
1.37

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

120 days