V-Lab
Hong Kong Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
0.29%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
0.33%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
0.45%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.4372 | 2.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1924 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8004 | 29.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1114 | 0.39 |
| γ2 | -0.1491 | -0.36 |
| γ3 | 0.1016 | 0.47 |
| γ4 | -0.2443 | -1.26 |
| γ5 | 0.4135 | 2.79*** |
| γ6 | -0.2841 | -2.79*** |
| γ7 | -0.1154 | -0.96 |
| γ8 | 0.4474 | 2.96*** |
| γ9 | -0.4438 | -2.43** |
| γ10 | 0.0888 | 0.41 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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