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V-Lab

Hong Kong Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

0.29%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

0.33%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

0.45%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Dollar SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.4372
2.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1924
6.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8004
29.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.1114
0.39
γ2-0.1491
-0.36
γ30.1016
0.47
γ4-0.2443
-1.26
γ50.4135
2.79***
γ6-0.2841
-2.79***
γ7-0.1154
-0.96
γ80.4474
2.96***
γ9-0.4438
-2.43**
γ100.0888
0.41

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

95 days