V-Lab
Argentine Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
7.34%
increased by 0.58%
1 Week
8.10%
increased by 1.34%
1 Month
10.36%
increased by 3.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0585 | 3.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.1907 | 8.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7917 | 40.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1329 | -2.26** |
| γ2 | 0.2379 | 2.68*** |
| γ3 | -0.1585 | -2.57** |
| γ4 | 0.1041 | 1.68* |
| γ5 | 0.0585 | 1.07 |
| γ6 | -0.2923 | -4.87*** |
| γ7 | 0.2327 | 2.25** |
| γ8 | 0.0228 | 0.20 |
| γ9 | -0.1531 | -1.57 |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0585 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1907 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7917 | 40.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1329 | -2.26** |
| γ2 | 0.2379 | 2.68*** |
| γ3 | -0.1585 | -2.57** |
| γ4 | 0.1041 | 1.68* |
| γ5 | 0.0585 | 1.07 |
| γ6 | -0.2923 | -4.87*** |
| γ7 | 0.2327 | 2.25** |
| γ8 | 0.0228 | 0.20 |
| γ9 | -0.1531 | -1.57 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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