Argentine Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
8.58%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
9.58%
increased by 0.97%
1 Month
12.51%
increased by 3.90%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0412 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1926 | 8.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7895 | 41.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1372 | -2.30** |
| γ2 | 0.2441 | 2.72*** |
| γ3 | -0.1598 | -2.60*** |
| γ4 | 0.0972 | 1.63 |
| γ5 | 0.0748 | 1.42 |
| γ6 | -0.3016 | -4.34*** |
| γ7 | 0.2212 | 2.00** |
| γ8 | 0.0373 | 0.35 |
| γ9 | -0.1221 | -1.34 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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