V-Lab
Philippine Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
4.30%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
4.36%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.56%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7550 | 6.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0711 | 9.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8941 | 82.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0594 | 6.78*** |
| γ2 | -0.0939 | -7.27*** |
| γ3 | 0.0529 | 5.77*** |
| γ4 | -0.0195 | -2.02** |
| γ5 | -0.0029 | -0.20 |
0.965
Persistence20d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7550 | 6.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0711 | 9.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8941 | 82.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0594 | 6.78*** |
| γ2 | -0.0939 | -7.27*** |
| γ3 | 0.0529 | 5.77*** |
| γ4 | -0.0195 | -2.02** |
| γ5 | -0.0029 | -0.20 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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