Kuwaiti Dinar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
3.03%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
3.08%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
3.17%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1375 | 4.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1540 | 9.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7455 | 32.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0340 | -1.26 |
| γ2 | 0.1454 | 3.23*** |
| γ3 | -0.2638 | -5.53*** |
| γ4 | 0.2654 | 4.79*** |
| γ5 | -0.1740 | -3.48*** |
| γ6 | 0.0560 | 1.35 |
| γ7 | 0.0488 | 1.40 |
| γ8 | -0.0681 | -1.95* |
| γ9 | 0.0773 | 2.08** |
| γ10 | -0.1188 | -1.75* |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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