V-Lab
Kuwaiti Dinar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2.93%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
3.11%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.47%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3162 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1528 | 9.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7501 | 34.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0090 | -0.35 |
| γ2 | 0.1064 | 2.44** |
| γ3 | -0.2366 | -5.01*** |
| γ4 | 0.2407 | 4.42*** |
| γ5 | -0.1540 | -3.08*** |
| γ6 | 0.0443 | 1.03 |
| γ7 | 0.0512 | 1.44 |
| γ8 | -0.0631 | -1.78* |
| γ9 | 0.0619 | 1.77* |
| γ10 | -0.0784 | -3.39*** |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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