V-Lab
Kuwaiti Dinar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2.89%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
3.04%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.36%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2479 | 4.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.1507 | 9.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7630 | 37.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0010 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0878 | 1.88* |
| γ3 | -0.2177 | -4.37*** |
| γ4 | 0.2286 | 4.03*** |
| γ5 | -0.1513 | -2.96*** |
| γ6 | 0.0485 | 1.11 |
| γ7 | 0.0448 | 1.22 |
| γ8 | -0.0548 | -1.45 |
| γ9 | 0.0525 | 1.38 |
| γ10 | -0.0723 | -2.90*** |
0.914
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2479 | 4.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1507 | 9.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7630 | 37.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0010 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0878 | 1.88* |
| γ3 | -0.2177 | -4.37*** |
| γ4 | 0.2286 | 4.03*** |
| γ5 | -0.1513 | -2.96*** |
| γ6 | 0.0485 | 1.11 |
| γ7 | 0.0448 | 1.22 |
| γ8 | -0.0548 | -1.45 |
| γ9 | 0.0525 | 1.38 |
| γ10 | -0.0723 | -2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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