Kuwaiti Dinar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.70%
increased by 1.22%
1 Week
4.59%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
4.32%
increased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2829 | 4.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.1509 | 9.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7595 | 37.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -0.05 |
| γ2 | 0.0886 | 1.97** |
| γ3 | -0.2182 | -4.44*** |
| γ4 | 0.2303 | 4.07*** |
| γ5 | -0.1575 | -3.13*** |
| γ6 | 0.0589 | 1.41 |
| γ7 | 0.0330 | 0.93 |
| γ8 | -0.0440 | -1.17 |
| γ9 | 0.0429 | 1.10 |
| γ10 | -0.0661 | -2.58*** |
0.910
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2829 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1509 | 9.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7595 | 37.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -0.05 |
| γ2 | 0.0886 | 1.97** |
| γ3 | -0.2182 | -4.44*** |
| γ4 | 0.2303 | 4.07*** |
| γ5 | -0.1575 | -3.13*** |
| γ6 | 0.0589 | 1.41 |
| γ7 | 0.0330 | 0.93 |
| γ8 | -0.0440 | -1.17 |
| γ9 | 0.0429 | 1.10 |
| γ10 | -0.0661 | -2.58*** |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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