V-Lab
Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2.96%
1 Week
3.13%
1 Month
3.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 32239 trading days (~127.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 100% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1290 | 12.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8063 | 152.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1294 | 4.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0600 | 1.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0049 | 3.44*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9944 | 327.22*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
32239 days
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