Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
4.77%
1 Week
4.88%
1 Month
5.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 27726 trading days (~110.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 92% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1192 | 12.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8257 | 91.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1102 | 3.14*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0420 | 0.93 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0052 | 2.97*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9944 | 277.76*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
27726 days
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