V-Lab
Kuwaiti Dinar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2.43%
1 Week
2.59%
1 Month
3.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 28291 trading days (~112.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.1100 | 0.89 |
| βGARCH | 0.8325 | 3.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.1150 | 0.57 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0383 | 0.62 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0044 | 0.33 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9950 | 183.32*** |
1.000
Persistence28291d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1100 | 0.89 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8325 | 3.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1150 | 0.57 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0383 | 0.62 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0044 | 0.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9950 | 183.32*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
28291 days
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