Kuwaiti Dinar GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
3.35%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
3.35%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
3.35%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0005 | 3.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0867 | 5.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9031 | 57.68*** |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0867 | 5.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9031 | 57.68*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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