V-Lab
US Dollar to Mexican Peso GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.12%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
5.40%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
6.31%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 01:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0073 | 2.45** |
| αARCH | 0.1369 | 7.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8494 | 64.55*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0073 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1369 | 7.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8494 | 64.55*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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