V-Lab
Polish Zloty GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
7.06%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
7.12%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
7.36%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 01:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 1993 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0031 | 4.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0528 | 8.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9402 | 147.37*** |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0031 | 4.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0528 | 8.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9402 | 147.37*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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