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V-Lab
V-Lab

Romanian Leu GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

4.38%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

4.41%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

4.52%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Romanian Leu GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 342 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~342 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0007
2.82***
αARCH0.0314
7.91***
βGARCH0.9666
235.93***

0.998

Persistence

342d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0007
2.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0314
7.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9666
235.93***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

342 days