V-Lab
Romanian Leu GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.38%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.41%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.52%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 342 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~342 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0007 | 2.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0314 | 7.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9666 | 235.93*** |
0.998
Persistence342d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0314 | 7.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9666 | 235.93*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
342 days
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