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V-Lab

US Dollar to Russian Ruble GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

13.21%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

13.23%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Month

13.32%

decreased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Russian Ruble GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0011
16.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0762
34.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9238
454.62***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-