V-Lab
US Dollar to Russian Ruble APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.55%
1 Week
14.57%
1 Month
14.65%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 03:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 44037348 trading days (~174751.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 70% more than negative returns
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0011 | 12.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0740 | 38.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9260 | 418.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1347 | -8.53*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9534 | 38.68*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
44037348 days
Other APARCH Analyses on Currencies