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V-Lab

US Dollar to Russian Ruble APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.55%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

14.57%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

14.65%

decreased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 03:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Russian Ruble APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 44037348 trading days (~174751.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 70% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0011
12.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0740
38.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9260
418.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1347
-8.53***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9534
38.68***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

44037348 days