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V-Lab

Philippine Peso APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

4.46%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

4.49%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

4.57%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippine Peso APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. The volatility power δ = 1.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0018
12.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0703
35.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9221
522.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0079
-0.78
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7948
36.10***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days