V-Lab
Philippine Peso APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
4.46%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.49%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.57%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. The volatility power δ = 1.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0018 | 12.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0703 | 35.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9221 | 522.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0079 | -0.78 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7948 | 36.10*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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