Philippine Peso APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.23%
1 Week
3.30%
1 Month
3.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. The volatility power δ = 1.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0017 | 3.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.0695 | 8.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9225 | 131.12*** |
| γleverage | -0.0060 | -0.15 |
| δpower | 1.8128 | 9.14*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0017 | 3.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0695 | 8.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9225 | 131.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0060 | -0.15 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8128 | 9.14*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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