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V-Lab
V-Lab

Philippine Peso AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

3.91%

increased by 0.30%

1 Week

3.95%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

4.06%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippine Peso AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0013
5.58***
αARCH0.0667
10.73***
βGARCH0.9197
131.45***
γleverage0.0031
0.16

0.986

Persistence

51d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0013
5.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0667
10.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9197
131.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0031
0.16

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days