V-Lab
Philippine Peso AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
3.91%
increased by 0.30%
1 Week
3.95%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
4.06%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0013 | 5.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.0667 | 10.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9197 | 131.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.0031 | 0.16 |
0.986
Persistence51d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 5.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0667 | 10.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9197 | 131.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0031 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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