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V-Lab

US Dollar to Brazilian Real AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

7.72%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

7.87%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

8.41%

increased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Brazilian Real AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1992 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0040
6.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0779
29.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9162
601.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1594
-5.92***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

117 days