V-Lab
US Dollar to Brazilian Real AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
7.72%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
7.87%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
8.41%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1992 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0040 | 6.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0779 | 29.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9162 | 601.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1594 | -5.92*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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