Mexican Peso AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
6.16%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
6.38%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
7.06%
increased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.21) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0036 | 10.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1195 | 36.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8564 | 282.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2142 | -29.99*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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