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V-Lab

Mexican Peso AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

6.16%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

6.38%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

7.06%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Peso AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.21) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0036
10.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1195
36.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8564
282.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2142
-29.99***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days