V-Lab
Mexican Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
6.11%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
6.57%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
7.86%
increased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8452 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1345 | 7.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8291 | 44.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.0242 | -0.59 |
| γ3 | 0.0655 | 2.33** |
| γ4 | -0.0768 | -3.20*** |
| γ5 | 0.0697 | 3.36*** |
| γ6 | -0.0638 | -2.93*** |
| γ7 | 0.0391 | 1.84* |
| γ8 | -0.0107 | -0.75 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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