V-Lab
Mexican Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7.05%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
7.41%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
8.45%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8400 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1346 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8282 | 44.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | -0.0252 | -0.61 |
| γ3 | 0.0664 | 2.36** |
| γ4 | -0.0772 | -3.22*** |
| γ5 | 0.0698 | 3.35*** |
| γ6 | -0.0639 | -2.92*** |
| γ7 | 0.0400 | 1.88* |
| γ8 | -0.0120 | -0.84 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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