V-Lab
Mexican Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
5.77%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
6.28%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
7.64%
increased by 1.99%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8434 | 4.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1342 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8287 | 44.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.0253 | -0.62 |
| γ3 | 0.0661 | 2.38** |
| γ4 | -0.0771 | -3.25*** |
| γ5 | 0.0696 | 3.38*** |
| γ6 | -0.0632 | -2.92*** |
| γ7 | 0.0384 | 1.81* |
| γ8 | -0.0101 | -0.71 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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