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V-Lab

Mexican Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

6.11%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

6.57%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

7.86%

increased by 1.58%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Peso S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8452
4.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1345
7.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8291
44.61***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0001
0.00
γ2-0.0242
-0.59
γ30.0655
2.33**
γ4-0.0768
-3.20***
γ50.0697
3.36***
γ6-0.0638
-2.93***
γ70.0391
1.84*
γ8-0.0107
-0.75

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days