V-Lab
Indonesian Rupiah Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.05%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
4.17%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.59%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5255 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1131 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8705 | 64.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0943 | -1.38 |
| γ2 | 0.1557 | 1.38 |
| γ3 | -0.0639 | -0.51 |
| γ4 | -0.0457 | -0.36 |
| γ5 | 0.1301 | 1.39 |
| γ6 | -0.1577 | -1.99** |
| γ7 | 0.1726 | 1.96* |
| γ8 | -0.1755 | -1.62 |
| γ9 | 0.1050 | 1.08 |
| γ10 | -0.0287 | -0.54 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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