V-Lab
Indonesian Rupiah Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
3.89%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
4.02%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
4.45%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 43 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2638 | 3.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1106 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8733 | 66.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1069 | -1.54 |
| γ2 | 0.1695 | 1.48 |
| γ3 | -0.0662 | -0.53 |
| γ4 | -0.0431 | -0.33 |
| γ5 | 0.1288 | 1.36 |
| γ6 | -0.1595 | -2.01** |
| γ7 | 0.1784 | 2.03** |
| γ8 | -0.1850 | -1.72* |
| γ9 | 0.1146 | 1.18 |
| γ10 | -0.0338 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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