V-Lab
South Korean Won Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
7.22%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
7.34%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
7.71%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3061 | 3.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0629 | 7.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9105 | 90.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1519 | 3.21*** |
| γ2 | -0.1847 | -2.41** |
| γ3 | 0.0503 | 0.88 |
| γ4 | 0.0082 | 0.17 |
| γ5 | -0.1172 | -2.83*** |
| γ6 | 0.2047 | 5.23*** |
| γ7 | -0.1910 | -4.97*** |
| γ8 | 0.1246 | 3.21*** |
| γ9 | -0.0623 | -1.59 |
| γ10 | 0.0103 | 0.33 |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3061 | 3.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0629 | 7.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9105 | 90.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1519 | 3.21*** |
| γ2 | -0.1847 | -2.41** |
| γ3 | 0.0503 | 0.88 |
| γ4 | 0.0082 | 0.17 |
| γ5 | -0.1172 | -2.83*** |
| γ6 | 0.2047 | 5.23*** |
| γ7 | -0.1910 | -4.97*** |
| γ8 | 0.1246 | 3.21*** |
| γ9 | -0.0623 | -1.59 |
| γ10 | 0.0103 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
Other South Korean Won Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies