V-Lab
South Korean Won Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
7.31%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
7.45%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
7.91%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9290 | 3.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0615 | 7.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9164 | 101.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0913 | 3.01*** |
| γ2 | -0.1205 | -2.59*** |
| γ3 | 0.0696 | 1.91* |
| γ4 | -0.1039 | -3.33*** |
| γ5 | 0.1274 | 4.68*** |
| γ6 | -0.1010 | -4.24*** |
| γ7 | 0.0625 | 2.57** |
| γ8 | -0.0406 | -2.09** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
Other South Korean Won Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies