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South Korean Won Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

8.47%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

8.52%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

8.68%

decreased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of South Korean Won S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3071
3.93***
αARCH0.0630
7.33***
βGARCH0.9106
91.40***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.1520
3.21***
γ2-0.1864
-2.43**
γ30.0551
0.96
γ40.0002
0.00
γ5-0.1075
-2.59***
γ60.1970
5.04***
γ7-0.1876
-4.92***
γ80.1241
3.20***
γ9-0.0617
-1.58
γ100.0089
0.29

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3071
3.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0630
7.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9106
91.40***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.1520
3.21***
γ2-0.1864
-2.43**
γ30.0551
0.96
γ40.0002
0.00
γ5-0.1075
-2.59***
γ60.1970
5.04***
γ7-0.1876
-4.92***
γ80.1241
3.20***
γ9-0.0617
-1.58
γ100.0089
0.29

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days