South Korean Won Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.47%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
8.52%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
8.68%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3071 | 3.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.0630 | 7.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9106 | 91.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1520 | 3.21*** |
| γ2 | -0.1864 | -2.43** |
| γ3 | 0.0551 | 0.96 |
| γ4 | 0.0002 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -0.1075 | -2.59*** |
| γ6 | 0.1970 | 5.04*** |
| γ7 | -0.1876 | -4.92*** |
| γ8 | 0.1241 | 3.20*** |
| γ9 | -0.0617 | -1.58 |
| γ10 | 0.0089 | 0.29 |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3071 | 3.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0630 | 7.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9106 | 91.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1520 | 3.21*** |
| γ2 | -0.1864 | -2.43** |
| γ3 | 0.0551 | 0.96 |
| γ4 | 0.0002 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -0.1075 | -2.59*** |
| γ6 | 0.1970 | 5.04*** |
| γ7 | -0.1876 | -4.92*** |
| γ8 | 0.1241 | 3.20*** |
| γ9 | -0.0617 | -1.58 |
| γ10 | 0.0089 | 0.29 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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