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Peruvian New Sol Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.67%

increased by 0.10%

1 Week

5.69%

increased by 1.12%

1 Month

8.65%

increased by 4.08%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Peruvian New Sol S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1996 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 25672 trading days (~101.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~25672 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst8.1425
0.08
αARCH0.4627
2.16**
βGARCH0.5373
26.81***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ15.2115
0.02
γ2-8.0449
-0.03
γ3-0.7662
-0.31
γ415.0250
12.97***
γ5-24.7456
-14.99***
γ624.3495
6.12***
γ7-19.0831
-4.77***
γ813.5917
2.22**
γ9-7.8013
-1.58

1.000

Persistence

25672d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.1425
0.08
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4627
2.16**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5373
26.81***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ15.2115
0.02
γ2-8.0449
-0.03
γ3-0.7662
-0.31
γ415.0250
12.97***
γ5-24.7456
-14.99***
γ624.3495
6.12***
γ7-19.0831
-4.77***
γ813.5917
2.22**
γ9-7.8013
-1.58

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

25672 days