Peruvian New Sol Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.67%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
5.69%
increased by 1.12%
1 Month
8.65%
increased by 4.08%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 02:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1996 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 25672 trading days (~101.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~25672 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 8.1425 | 0.08 |
| αARCH | 0.4627 | 2.16** |
| βGARCH | 0.5373 | 26.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 5.2115 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | -8.0449 | -0.03 |
| γ3 | -0.7662 | -0.31 |
| γ4 | 15.0250 | 12.97*** |
| γ5 | -24.7456 | -14.99*** |
| γ6 | 24.3495 | 6.12*** |
| γ7 | -19.0831 | -4.77*** |
| γ8 | 13.5917 | 2.22** |
| γ9 | -7.8013 | -1.58 |
1.000
Persistence25672d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.1425 | 0.08 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4627 | 2.16** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5373 | 26.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 5.2115 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | -8.0449 | -0.03 |
| γ3 | -0.7662 | -0.31 |
| γ4 | 15.0250 | 12.97*** |
| γ5 | -24.7456 | -14.99*** |
| γ6 | 24.3495 | 6.12*** |
| γ7 | -19.0831 | -4.77*** |
| γ8 | 13.5917 | 2.22** |
| γ9 | -7.8013 | -1.58 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
25672 days
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