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Peruvian New Sol Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

1.49%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

1.49%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

1.49%

decreased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

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graph of Peruvian New Sol S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2772 trading days (~11.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2772 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst17.9387
1.40
αARCH0.5456
32.77***
βGARCH0.4541
495.22***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ17.1908
0.59
γ2-10.3835
-0.62
γ3-3.4042
-0.58
γ424.8167
14.04***
γ5-38.9472
-53.09***
γ637.9203
52.29***
γ7-30.1271
-17.72***
γ822.1146
6.23***
γ9-12.9369
-4.21***

1.000

Persistence

2772d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

17.9387
1.40
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5456
32.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4541
495.22***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ17.1908
0.59
γ2-10.3835
-0.62
γ3-3.4042
-0.58
γ424.8167
14.04***
γ5-38.9472
-53.09***
γ637.9203
52.29***
γ7-30.1271
-17.72***
γ822.1146
6.23***
γ9-12.9369
-4.21***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2772 days