V-Lab
Peruvian New Sol Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
1.49%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
1.49%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
1.49%
decreased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2772 trading days (~11.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2772 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 17.9387 | 1.40 |
| αARCH | 0.5456 | 32.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4541 | 495.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 7.1908 | 0.59 |
| γ2 | -10.3835 | -0.62 |
| γ3 | -3.4042 | -0.58 |
| γ4 | 24.8167 | 14.04*** |
| γ5 | -38.9472 | -53.09*** |
| γ6 | 37.9203 | 52.29*** |
| γ7 | -30.1271 | -17.72*** |
| γ8 | 22.1146 | 6.23*** |
| γ9 | -12.9369 | -4.21*** |
1.000
Persistence2772d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.9387 | 1.40 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5456 | 32.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4541 | 495.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 7.1908 | 0.59 |
| γ2 | -10.3835 | -0.62 |
| γ3 | -3.4042 | -0.58 |
| γ4 | 24.8167 | 14.04*** |
| γ5 | -38.9472 | -53.09*** |
| γ6 | 37.9203 | 52.29*** |
| γ7 | -30.1271 | -17.72*** |
| γ8 | 22.1146 | 6.23*** |
| γ9 | -12.9369 | -4.21*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2772 days
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