V-Lab
Peruvian New Sol Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
1.24%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
1.22%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
1.12%
decreased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 26.3485 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5234 | 0.76 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4499 | 12.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 9.1673 | 0.16 |
| γ2 | -12.9134 | -0.16 |
| γ3 | -4.7169 | -0.16 |
| γ4 | 31.1713 | 3.66*** |
| γ5 | -48.0166 | -16.45*** |
| γ6 | 45.6795 | 2.45** |
| γ7 | -35.2825 | -0.96 |
| γ8 | 25.2899 | 0.72 |
| γ9 | -14.6090 | -0.47 |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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