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Peruvian New Sol Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

2.23%

increased by 0.17%

1 Week

2.26%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

2.35%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Peruvian New Sol S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst19.9751
0.12
αARCH0.5204
2.26**
βGARCH0.4707
55.19***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ16.3091
0.14
γ2-8.6229
-0.14
γ3-5.0407
-0.23
γ426.4790
4.32***
γ5-40.4940
-18.19***
γ638.5472
33.61***
γ7-29.7277
-21.97***
γ821.1672
1.87*
γ9-12.0760
-0.52

0.991

Persistence

78d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

19.9751
0.12
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5204
2.26**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4707
55.19***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ16.3091
0.14
γ2-8.6229
-0.14
γ3-5.0407
-0.23
γ426.4790
4.32***
γ5-40.4940
-18.19***
γ638.5472
33.61***
γ7-29.7277
-21.97***
γ821.1672
1.87*
γ9-12.0760
-0.52

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days