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V-Lab

Peruvian New Sol Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

1.24%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

1.22%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

1.12%

decreased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Peruvian New Sol S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

26.3485
0.06
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5234
0.76
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4499
12.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ19.1673
0.16
γ2-12.9134
-0.16
γ3-4.7169
-0.16
γ431.1713
3.66***
γ5-48.0166
-16.45***
γ645.6795
2.45**
γ7-35.2825
-0.96
γ825.2899
0.72
γ9-14.6090
-0.47

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days