V-Lab
Peruvian New Sol MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
4.05%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
8.22%
increased by 4.29%
1 Month
111.49%
increased by 107.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1769 | 23.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4373 | 25.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0019 | -0.06 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0176 | 0.12 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9958 | 1.72* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.613
Half-life:
1 days
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