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V-Lab

Peruvian New Sol MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

9.04%

decreased by 3.41%

1 Week

15.58%

increased by 3.13%

1 Month

188.85%

increased by 176.40%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Peruvian New Sol MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 15, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.1758
6.18***
βGARCH0.4349
7.36***
γleverage-0.0012
-0.02
λ₁tau intercept0.0175
1.29
λ₂forecast adj.0.9954
7.63***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.610

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1758
6.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4349
7.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0012
-0.02
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0175
1.29
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9954
7.63***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.610

Half-life:

1 days