V-Lab
Peruvian New Sol MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
9.04%
decreased by 3.41%
1 Week
15.58%
increased by 3.13%
1 Month
188.85%
increased by 176.40%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.1758 | 6.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4349 | 7.36*** |
| γleverage | -0.0012 | -0.02 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0175 | 1.29 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9954 | 7.63*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.610
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1758 | 6.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4349 | 7.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0012 | -0.02 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0175 | 1.29 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9954 | 7.63*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.610
Half-life:
1 days
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