V-Lab
Peruvian New Sol MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
3.14%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
6.52%
increased by 3.36%
1 Month
88.64%
increased by 85.48%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1770 | 23.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4373 | 25.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0019 | -0.06 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0176 | 0.12 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9954 | 1.72* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.613
Half-life:
1 days
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