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US Dollar to Japanese Yen MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

5.80%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

5.96%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

6.13%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Japanese Yen MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 391% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 391% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0185
1.97**
βGARCH0.7999
24.02***
γleverage0.0722
4.41***
λ₁tau intercept0.0013
3.14***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0272
4.74***
λ₃tau persistence0.9680
146.49***

0.854

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0185
1.97**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7999
24.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0722
4.41***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0013
3.14***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0272
4.74***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9680
146.49***

Persistence:

0.854

Half-life:

4 days