V-Lab
Pakistani Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
3.52%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.53%
increased by 1.01%
1 Month
6.96%
increased by 3.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.1726 | 4.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5208 | 9.37*** |
| γleverage | 0.0337 | 0.65 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0241 | 1.52 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.7998 | 2.84*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0885 | 0.28 |
0.710
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1726 | 4.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5208 | 9.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0337 | 0.65 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0241 | 1.52 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7998 | 2.84*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0885 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.710
Half-life:
2 days
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