V-Lab
Pakistani Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
3.89%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
4.99%
increased by 1.25%
1 Month
7.58%
increased by 3.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1725 | 11.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5206 | 21.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0337 | 0.74 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0241 | 0.59 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8003 | 1.06 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0887 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.710
Half-life:
2 days
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