V-Lab
Pakistani Rupee MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
3.67%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
4.68%
increased by 0.84%
1 Month
7.11%
increased by 3.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.1733 | 4.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5188 | 9.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0326 | 0.63 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0240 | 1.52 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8004 | 2.84*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0882 | 0.28 |
0.708
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1733 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5188 | 9.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0326 | 0.63 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0240 | 1.52 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8004 | 2.84*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0882 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.708
Half-life:
2 days
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