V-Lab
Pakistani Rupee Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.45%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
4.82%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
6.06%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9601 | 1.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2018 | 11.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7924 | 50.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2400 | -5.69*** |
| γ2 | 0.2367 | 3.02*** |
| γ3 | 0.1098 | 1.48 |
| γ4 | -0.1865 | -3.46*** |
| γ5 | 0.0745 | 1.25 |
| γ6 | 0.1642 | 2.45** |
| γ7 | -0.3730 | -4.53*** |
| γ8 | 0.3296 | 3.10*** |
| γ9 | -0.1417 | -1.93* |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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