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V-Lab

Pakistani Rupee Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

4.45%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

4.82%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

6.06%

increased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pakistani Rupee S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9601
1.54
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2018
11.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7924
50.04***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.2400
-5.69***
γ20.2367
3.02***
γ30.1098
1.48
γ4-0.1865
-3.46***
γ50.0745
1.25
γ60.1642
2.45**
γ7-0.3730
-4.53***
γ80.3296
3.10***
γ9-0.1417
-1.93*

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

120 days