V-Lab
Pakistani Rupee Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
3.93%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
4.32%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
5.56%
increased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9700 | 1.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2000 | 11.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7945 | 50.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2408 | -5.71*** |
| γ2 | 0.2385 | 3.04*** |
| γ3 | 0.1084 | 1.46 |
| γ4 | -0.1870 | -3.46*** |
| γ5 | 0.0789 | 1.33 |
| γ6 | 0.1566 | 2.34** |
| γ7 | -0.3680 | -4.45*** |
| γ8 | 0.3305 | 3.06*** |
| γ9 | -0.1440 | -1.91* |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
125 days
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