V-Lab
Pakistani Rupee Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.70%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
5.06%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
6.27%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9725 | 1.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2002 | 11.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7943 | 50.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2409 | -5.71*** |
| γ2 | 0.2386 | 3.04*** |
| γ3 | 0.1083 | 1.46 |
| γ4 | -0.1869 | -3.46*** |
| γ5 | 0.0789 | 1.33 |
| γ6 | 0.1568 | 2.34** |
| γ7 | -0.3686 | -4.45*** |
| γ8 | 0.3318 | 3.06*** |
| γ9 | -0.1455 | -1.92* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
126 days
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