V-Lab
Philippine Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.32%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.39%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.60%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7418 | 6.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0714 | 9.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8936 | 82.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0589 | 6.69*** |
| γ2 | -0.0930 | -7.20*** |
| γ3 | 0.0523 | 5.90*** |
| γ4 | -0.0193 | -2.44** |
| γ5 | -0.0018 | -0.31 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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