V-Lab
Philippine Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3.60%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
3.73%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
4.12%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7460 | 6.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0714 | 9.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8938 | 82.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0594 | 6.69*** |
| γ2 | -0.0937 | -7.19*** |
| γ3 | 0.0526 | 5.87*** |
| γ4 | -0.0194 | -2.42** |
| γ5 | -0.0016 | -0.28 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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