V-Lab
Philippine Peso Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
4.60%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
4.65%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
4.79%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7431 | 6.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 9.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8934 | 81.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0590 | 6.69*** |
| γ2 | -0.0932 | -7.20*** |
| γ3 | 0.0524 | 5.89*** |
| γ4 | -0.0193 | -2.43** |
| γ5 | -0.0018 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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