Dogecoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
47.59%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
50.38%
increased by 2.10%
1 Month
55.09%
increased by 6.81%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 06:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2022 to Oct 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4663 | 4.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.1589 | 3.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7065 | 8.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.7690 | 4.52*** |
| γ2 | -1.1957 | -4.98*** |
| γ3 | 0.5776 | 5.05*** |
0.865
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4663 | 4.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1589 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7065 | 8.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.7690 | 4.52*** |
| γ2 | -1.1957 | -4.98*** |
| γ3 | 0.5776 | 5.05*** |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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