V-Lab
Dogecoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
37.39%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
41.16%
increased by 3.08%
1 Month
47.21%
increased by 9.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2022 to Aug 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9384 | 2.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1538 | 2.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7102 | 7.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -1.4201 | -1.41 |
| γ2 | 3.1812 | 2.31** |
| γ3 | -2.6911 | -2.69*** |
| γ4 | 1.2164 | 1.07 |
| γ5 | -1.2490 | -1.15 |
| γ6 | 1.6831 | 2.34** |
Persistence:
0.864
Half-life:
5 days
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