V-Lab
Dogecoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
62.65%
decreased by 6.77%
1 Week
62.16%
decreased by 7.26%
1 Month
61.21%
decreased by 8.21%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2022 to Sep 26, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4609 | 4.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.1553 | 3.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7205 | 9.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.7834 | 4.35*** |
| γ2 | -1.2079 | -4.73*** |
| γ3 | 0.5696 | 4.67*** |
0.876
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4609 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1553 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7205 | 9.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.7834 | 4.35*** |
| γ2 | -1.2079 | -4.73*** |
| γ3 | 0.5696 | 4.67*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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