Dogecoin to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
41.36%
1 Week
42.99%
1 Month
46.25%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2022 to Jul 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 106% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1479 | 11.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5240 | 13.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0761 | -5.58*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.8976 | 1.09 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8827 | 3.13*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.634
Half-life:
2 days
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