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V-Lab

Dogecoin to US Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

41.36%

decreased by 3.17%

1 Week

42.99%

decreased by 1.54%

1 Month

46.25%

increased by 1.72%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Dogecoin to US Dollar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 23, 2022 to Jul 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 106% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1479
11.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5240
13.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0761
-5.58***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.8976
1.09
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8827
3.13***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.634

Half-life:

2 days